3 Reasons NOT To Buy Real Estate Today

It may be counter intuitive for a real estate professional to suggest clients not buy a home yet that is exactly what I’ve advised a half-dozen of my clients for the time being. Last week I shared the historical view that San Diego’s current real estate market is not a Housing Bubble but that does not mean home values will continue to rise unchecked. Here are my top 3 reasons why you should not buy real estate today:

The Holidays

Let’s face it, no one wants to move during the Holidays. Unpack the week before Christmas? What about family coming into town… will the house be ready? So stressful! The Holiday season is typically the slowest time of year in real estate. Buyers, sellers and real estate agents alike shift their focus from the need to move, to family gatherings, hosting, and all the Christmas shopping we still have to do. The pool of buyers virtually disappears, sellers put showings on hold and agents… good luck getting a call back. (Not me! says every agent reading this) Buyers like options and sellers like multiple offers, both of which decline during the Holidays.

A Pullback Is In The Works

If you pick up a newspaper (who still does that?) or check your favorite news site for real estate info, you’ll likely read an article which cites recent data by the National Association of Realtors or California Association of Realtors reporting on home prices which continue to rise. The fact is, the data is stale by the time it’s published. August Existing-Home Sales for instance weren’t reported by N.A.R. until September 19th. Real time data day in and day out is what you need to be able to make an informed decision. One glance at Chula Vista’s Median Home Price clearly shows a pullback that you will likely not know about for another month or so.

Media Coverage to Come

As September home sales get set to release in the next 2 weeks, expect all media outlets to make it rain with negative coverage as sales and home prices are likely to show a month over month decline. This is a good thing! Home values cannot rise forever… you do remember 1996 – 2006 right? As media coverage scares more buyers from entering the market, an opportunity will develop for those paying attention.[Tweet “Home values cannot rise forever…”]

Bottom Line

Everyone’s situation is different and there are great deals to be had no matter what the real estate market is doing. The way things are shaping up in San Diego, I foresee a pullback in home prices giving buyers a small window of opportunity for the best time to buy late December, early January before property values continue to appreciate through 2014.
Disclaimer: I can’t predict the future. You should not rely on this to make any decisions.